Strategic Instincts

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At the heart of international relations is the quest to understand the actions of citizens and leaders. Recent research has shown that the long-standing "rational choice theory" is inadequate, as people often act irrationally due to psychological biases. Traditionally, political science has viewed these biases as sources of errors, but fields like evolutionary biology recognize them as adaptive heuristics that enhance decision-making. The author employs his cross-disciplinary expertise to explore how these biases can lead to success in international relations. He examines three prominent biases: overconfidence, the fundamental attribution error (the tendency to attribute others' actions to their character rather than external factors), and in-group/out-group bias (favoring one’s own group). The author outlines scientific research on each bias, discusses their adaptive advantages, and provides historical examples where these biases conferred strategic benefits, such as overconfidence during the American Revolution, the UK’s appeasement of Hitler, and group bias in the Pacific campaign of WWII. He also addresses the potential "dark side" of these biases, illustrating how they can lead to hubris, paranoia, and racism when taken to extremes. Ultimately, he argues that this evolutionary perspective is essential for applying psychological insights to fundamental questions in the field.